SOFR, IOR and Repo?
Indicators that (nearly) nobody are watching
The financial system’s heart rate spiked hard on October 31, 2025, forcing the Federal Reserve to inject $50.4 billion into markets—the largest emergency intervention since the pandemic. An obscure interest rate called SOFR jumped to 4.22%, and the gap between that rate and the Fed’s safety valve stretched to its widest point ever. By November 6, SOFR had settled back down to 3.92%, but the October spike revealed something crucial: the financial system is running dangerously low on cash reserves, and when stressed, the plumbing can still clog fast.
Let’s dive right in.
What is the repo market?
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