George Osborne And Big Banks - By John Aziz (23/11/12) PDF Print E-mail
John Aziz   
Friday, 23 November 2012 10:13

Azizonomics blog,

The Telegraph reports that George Osborne thinks big banks are good for society:

The Chancellor warned that “aggressively” breaking up banks would do little to benefit the UK and insisted the Government’s plans to put in place a so-called “ring fence” to force banks to isolate their riskier, investment banking businesses from their retail arm was the right way to make the financial system safer.

“If we aggressively broke up all of our big banks, I am not sure that, as a society, we would benefit from it,” he said. “We don’t have a huge number of banks, sadly, large banks. I would like to see more.”

His comments came as he gave evidence to the parliamentary commission on banking standards where he was accused of attempting to pressure members into supporting his ring-fencing reforms.

“That work has been accepted, as far as I’m aware, by all the major political parties. We are now on the verge of getting on with it,” he said.

Several members of the Commission have argued in favour of breaking up large banks, including former Chancellor, Lord Lawson.


This is really disappointing.



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Morgan Stanley’s Doom Scenario: Major Recession In 2013 - By Deepanshu Bagchee (22/11/12) PDF Print E-mail
Deepanshu Bagchee   
Thursday, 22 November 2012 08:43

CNBC

The global economy is likely to be stuck in the “twilight zone” of sluggish growth in 2013, Morgan Stanley has warned, but if policymakers fail to act, it could get a lot worse.

The bank’s economics team forecasts a full-blown recession next year, under a pessimistic scenario, with global gross domestic product (GDP) likely to plunge 2 percent.

“More than ever, the economic outlook hinges upon the actions taken or not taken by governments and central banks,” Morgan Stanley said in a report.

Under the bank’s more gloomy scenario, the U.S. would go over the “fiscal cliff” leading to a contraction in U.S. GDP for the first three quarters of 2013. In Europe, the bank’s pessimistic scenario assumes a failure of the European Central Bank (ECB) in cutting rates and a delay of its bond-buying program.

But the bank says investors should also be nimble, in case policy action is “convincing and decisive,” leading to a big uptick in growth.

“Importantly, investors should keep an open mind and be prepared to switch between the scenarios as policy developments unfold.”

The bank’s most optimistic scenario forecasts GDP growth of 4 percent in 2012 compared to around 3.1 percent this year.

Morgan Stanley isn’t alone in warning about a recession next year. Noted bear, Nouriel Roubini warned on Monday that certain key developments would exacerbate the downside risks to global growth in 2013.

“Until now, the recessionary fiscal drag has been concentrated in the euro zone periphery and the U.K.. But now it is permeating the euro zone’s core,” Roubini wrote. “And in the U.S., even if President Barack Obama and the Republicans in Congress agree on a budget plan that avoids the looming “fiscal cliff,” spending cuts and tax increases will invariably lead to some drag on growth in 2013 – at least 1 percent of GDP.”

Roubini said the rally in global markets that begun in July was now running out of steam as global growth slows and valuations look stretched.

“Price/earnings ratios are now high, while growth in earnings per share is slackening, and will be subject to further negative surprises as growth and inflation remain low. With uncertainty, volatility, and tail risks on the rise again, the correction could accelerate quickly.”



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The Bankers Lost - By Darryl Robert Schoon (22/11/12) PDF Print E-mail
Darryl Robert Schoon   
Thursday, 22 November 2012 08:40

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The Unadulterated Gold Standard - By Keith Werner (22/11/12) PDF Print E-mail
Keith Werner   
Thursday, 22 November 2012 08:39

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Central Banks Be Tamed? - By John P. Cochran (20/11/12) PDF Print E-mail
John P. Cochran   
Tuesday, 20 November 2012 09:22

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