This article will annoy a lot of people, especially investors and the government of Singapore.

But, a warning must be given as the year comes to a close and as we head into stormy financial waters in 2010.

In an earlier article, I have warned that the 2nd Wave of the Global Financial Tsunami will hit us between the 1st and 2nd quarter of 2010. It could be earlier, but for sure it will happen in 2010. The signs are clear.

2010 will be unusual and significant because the key factors that will trigger the 2nd wave will be sovereign defaults across major economies. The Dubai default is but a glimpse of what is to come in 2010.

But, I am more concerned with events unfolding in South-East Asia.

In the 1997/1998 financial crisis, the contagion started in Thailand and within months spread across the entire region, even affecting the so-called Tiger Economies. We, in Malaysia know too well the effect it had on our economy.

The European Commission has sounded the alarm bells that some key economies are overly indebted and would pose a grave danger to the global economy.

See for yourself. As a percentage of the GDP, the debts of the following countries are as follows: -

1)        Japan                     172.1%
2)        Lebanon                160.3%
3)        Italy                         105.8%

4)       Singapore             99.2%

5)        Greece                   97.4%
6)        Belgium                  89.6%

East European economies are tottering at the edge of bankruptcy.

Already, in the last few days, Greece is in turmoil and sovereign default is a real likelihood. IMF has weighed in on the issue and has demanded austerity measures, but Greece refuses to comply and remain defiant.

If Greece is in a mess, what will happen to Singapore?

Singapore has 99.2% of debt to GDP and its external trade has collapsed for good and will remain down and out for the near future, well into 2011 at the minimum. Singapore investment agencies have suffered substantial losses as a result of their dabbling in Wall Street’s toxic wastes. The monies in these investments are lost for good.

If the global economy remains stagnant, as it will be in 2010 and 2011, Singapore is a candidate for default and this can happen anytime soon. And the contagion to the economies of South-East Asia will be devastating, especially to Indonesia and Malaysia. Compared to the situation in 1997/1998, the coming contagion will overwhelm our fragile economies.

Many Malaysians who have made ill-gotten gains have parked their monies in Singapore, thinking that it is a safe haven. This is especially so for the rich and famous from Malaysia and Indonesia.

They better get their money out quick and park it somewhere really safe – e.g. in China as when the shit hits the ceiling fan, you can bet that the Singapore government will clamp down all exits and no funds will be allowed to escape.

Ouch!!!

You are forewarned.

Get your money out of Singapore now! Dump Sing dollars!

Is Malaysia ready for such an eventuality?

Any responsible government must consider all probabilities and put in place strategies and policies to avoid the fiasco.

I have heard from the grapevine that the political secretaries and special officers (especially those having a long list of alphabets after their names and with management consultant credentials) are not even aware that such an eventuality can occur in 2010 / 2011.

Others at the Central Bank and Treasury are also in deep slumber.

Sorry to spoil your Christmas and New Year holiday mood.

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